COMMENTARY: Still the economy, stupid

Although the risks are still high, Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics says a recession in the US is inevitable.

Today’s elections are becoming like sporting events. We predict, compare statistics, listen to experts and love “Monday morning quarterback” results. Everyone has an opinion on what the campaign could have and should have done better and why the results are the way they are.

From former presidents to former senators and congressmen, there has been no shortage of information as to why the Democratic Party has underperformed in recent elections. While some moderate losses are always expected from the party in control of the White House, the unfortunate truth is that even if they win (see: the 2020 general elections), today’s Democrats tend to underperform.

Almost every Election Day begins the same way for candidates, parties and party activists – with excitement, hope and good nerves. But when the exit polls are back in the early going, that joy and hope is, often, tempered with worry. Then comes the question – why did the polls get so wrong? Why are Democrats doing worse in this district than they did last term? Why are so few members of the voting body having problems? Where is the voter’s interest? What happened?

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Don’t expect a deal to appear at some point. But to me, the answer seems clear: It’s the economy, stupid.

It’s as true now as it was 30 years ago when legendary Democratic strategist James Carville used it to present political reality to then-candidate Bill Clinton.

I’ve written about Washington’s struggles to come up with a coherent way to bring inflation down. I respect the challenges of managing rapid change in an ever-changing economy. However, I also stand that the party in power has failed to provide answers.

The main problem is that their failure did not bring them back to the drawing board. Instead, it allowed them to waste a lot of political power and voter interest by trying to demonize their GOP colleagues. They spend a lot of energy explaining the latest tweets, drawing national attention to public anger, or attacking GOP candidates or officials they see as weak without discussing a plan to act. For years, Democrats have been called the “party of no,” and this cycle has proven to be no different – all attacks, nothing.

Such violence no doubt makes perfect sense, and if we’re being honest, some in the GOP need to reconsider. But the reality is that this political back and forth does not move the needle with voters as many think it does or want it to. In fact, for millions, this approach feels like it has nothing to do with the important things that determine the future of our country and, in turn, the future of millions of American families.

In other words, the party in power must focus on what the voters are looking for. And while it’s always different, most voters care more about things like inflation and gas prices than almost anything else.

Editor: Honoring and remembering US veterans

The Washington Post, in summarizing President Barack Obama’s instructions to the party, made a very good point on this matter: “You should address the public’s concerns. Don’t worry about ‘program gobbledygook.’ Don’t focus too much on the ‘latest thing’ Republicans say. And maybe don’t talk too much to the police. “

No matter what happened when the votes were cast, there will be no shortage of “autopsies” for experts to analyze, but here’s a tip: whichever side of the political spectrum you’re on, you can skip the polls and polls in search of answers.

It’s an asset, fools. The party in possession is responsible for keeping the word in mind at all times. When they fail to do so, the results on Election Day are often predictable.

Dan K. Eberhart is a Republican donor and CEO of Canary, an oil company. He wrote this for


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