When it’s the BNP, you never know

If you look at the history of modern democracy, finding an opponent for the BNP will not be easy. Despite being out of power for a decade and a half, during which time it has made one serious political mistake after another and strayed further and further from regaining power, the BNP is still one of the two most popular political parties in Bangladesh.

For years, BNP members – local activists and key figures alike – have faced thousands of political cases and heavy police action across the country. Still, it will be difficult to find a place in Bangladesh where the party does not exist. If there is a local unit of the ruling Awami League anywhere, there will most likely be a unit of the BNP as well.

In the last 13 years, the BNP has boycotted one general election and decided at the last minute to vote in the next, and on both occasions has come away with almost equally devastating results: zero seats in the election it boycotted and almost zero seats in the one in which they participated. The last time the party contested a general election with its usual preparation was in 2008, and it suffered a massive defeat.

Although they won about a fifth of the seats in Parliament, they chose to stay out of the House for most of this Parliament’s term in office. All of this meant that the media (both mainstream and social) was the only platform left for them to challenge the government. As a result, they have never had an official say in the country’s political decision-making process over the years.

With another general election looming, the BNP is trying to warm up its ranks. One would think that the party would have difficulty finding supporters for its rallies and processions after being so many years away from power. Surprisingly, that’s not the case: supporters’ involvement in their street programs has been impressive. Historically, large political protests take place in winter and spring because of the pleasant weather that allows parties to keep their supporters on the streets for long hours. This year, however, despite the summer heat and strong sun, the BNP has a large following.

One can never be sure whether the large numbers of people who are joining these recent BNP political programs are general people who spontaneously come out of their frustration with the current government, or just party workers who in return for some form of material gain or expectations of future rewards to come. Either way, voter turnout is merely an indicator of the party’s popularity, which is just one of many requirements for election victory.

Tactically, the party has never been in a worse situation. No one knows when their supreme leader, Khaleda Zia, who is in her 70s and has been struggling with potentially fatal illnesses, can return to active politics. Her deputy Tarique Rahman, convicted of serious crimes, has been in exile in Britain for more than a decade. Many of its veteran leaders have either died or become inactive due to old age or other reasons, leaving only a handful of leaders at the top to run the show, some of whom lack proven political ability and administrative potential. Add to that the political cases hanging over virtually every key BNP member, and one cannot help but wonder where the party gets the organizational strength to recruit as many people as possible.

There are several factors that are likely to help the BNP build the emotional drive for its supporters to come and join the street protests. The first is the deaths of at least three men from shots allegedly fired by law enforcement during recent street protests. Second is the soaring price of basic necessities like food and fuel. Third, there is news of many different types of corruption allegedly committed by government party politicians and government officials. And fourth is the perennial anti-incumbent sentiment that every party in Bangladesh that has ever been in power has had to contend with.

The protest programs currently being carried out by the BNP revolve almost exclusively around issues such as price hikes and corruption. Through these protests, the party is attempting to correct its earlier failure to present itself as a pro-people party. In fact, this failure to address issues that directly affect people’s lives is often seen as one of the many serious strategic mistakes made by the BNP in the past. But one thing is clear, the party’s stance so far has been not to vote in any elections under the current Awami League government. On the other hand, with BNP you never know; They could decide at the last minute to vote in the elections like they did in 2018. You might be just as popular and this might be the source of confidence to take the polls. However, this popularity has not translated into favorable results in recent elections. So it’s not enough just to be popular; The party must make strategic preparations to cheer on its base and prepare it to stand firm and compete with its political rivals in local struggles.

One can never be sure whether the large numbers of people who are joining these recent BNP political programs are general people who spontaneously come out of their frustration with the current government, or just party workers who in return for some form of material gain or expectations of future rewards to come. Either way, voter turnout is merely an indicator of the party’s popularity, which is just one of many requirements for election victory.

On the way to the next parliamentary elections, BNP seems to lack a concrete strategy to meet the other requirements. Even if they have a plan, it has to come out soon; otherwise, a change of fate will always elude them.

Mohammad Al Masum Molla is deputy chief reporter at The Daily Star.