Troy Teslike tracks Tesla data like no one I know. Last day he did released an interesting 2½ year breakdown. The table below shows how Tesla’s share of the major BEV markets has declined in recent years.
Looking first at the largest market, China, Tesla’s share of this BEV market has declined 15.9% in Q2 2020 to 9.0% in the second quarter of 2022.
Looking to Europe, Tesla’s share of the BEV market has declined 15.4% in Q2 2020 to 8.0% in the second quarter of 2020.
Looking at the USA (which is little more than half the size of the European BEV market or far smaller than the Chinese BEV market), the Tesla share fell 82.9% in Q2 2020 to 63.8% in the second quarter of 2020.
Taking all of these markets together, Tesla’s share of BEV sales (registrations) fell 25.1% in Q2 2020 to 15.6% in the second quarter of 2022.
Image © Troy Teslike
These drops are pretty stunning, but there’s a lot to add here for context.
First, while Tesla’s share of these BEV markets declined significantly, Tesla’s actual worldwide sales increased significantly. From 90,891 deliveries in the second quarter of 2020 to 254,695 deliveries in the second quarter of 2022, Tesla’s sales increased enormously 180.2%. With that in mind, the BEV stock decline above looks very different. The key point is that these BEV markets are growing much faster overall, as fast as Tesla’s production and sales are growing.
As part of that, there are just a lot more EVs on offer these days, and importantly, much more compelling, competitive, long-range EVs. There are hundreds of electric car models on the market today (at least in Europe and China) and people like variety and choice. Each new BEV model release attracts new buyers. The biggest point here is that the BEV markets are absolutely exploding, and that should be considered a good thing by any true Tesla fan, since Tesla’s whole mission is to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles and clean, green, sustainable energy . If the market is growing much faster than the fast-growing Tesla, that’s great news!
Here is the chart for the same table. It shows Tesla’s market share in (BEV) battery electric vehicles. pic.twitter.com/ECjC2XRsOK
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 24, 2022
It’s also worth noting that Tesla sells every vehicle it can make, so it’s not as if Tesla is sitting on huge inventories and suffering from weak demand. We don’t know the true level of Tesla’s consumer demand. However, as Tesla Giga Berlin and Tesla Giga Texas continue to ramp up, we should have a better idea of how demand for Tesla vehicles is shaping up.
Although while I’m not ready to read yet to In this context, it should also be recognized that Tesla has started to ship many more vehicles to new markets – Australia, Japan, Taiwan.
Probably the most common “criticism” is one we get here a lot when we publish our various EV sales reports – some people think cheap electric cars shouldn’t be counted in China.
yes they are included I do not agree that they should be excluded.
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) September 24, 2022
I agree with Troy. They are electric cars and should therefore be counted as electric cars in such reports. Of course, one could certainly compare by vehicle class, but that is not the task here. These cheap electric cars, which have become very popular in China, have doors, roofs, cargo space and are electric – they count.
I find it fascinating that Tesla BEV market share has dropped from 25.1% in Q2 2020 to 15.6% in Q2 2022, but that doesn’t come across the same way at all considering that Tesla is in has grown by 180.2% during this period. Also keep in mind that Elon Musk’s own long-term estimate, or target, is that Tesla will settle at around 10% of the global auto market.
We’ll see what becomes of these trends in the coming year. Any predictions?
Related Story: What’s up with Tesla wait times in China?
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