Stock Market 2023: What To Do After ‘Stay Away’ Year; Tesla, Nio, BYD Deliveries Due

Dow Jones futures will open Monday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Tesla (TSLA) and Chinese EV makers such as Nio, Li Auto and BYD will announce year-end and 2022 deliveries over the Christmas holiday weekend.




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Investors will look for a brighter market in 2023 after a “stay away” year, especially for growth. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all posted their biggest annual declines in 14 years. A stock market rally is underway, but it has a long way to go to prove itself.

The Dow Jones dipped below its 50-day moving average on Friday. The S&P 500 and especially the Nasdaq have some distance to go to their 50-day lines, with several other major resistance areas on the way.

Celsius Holdings (CELH), Deere (MOTHER), BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Medpace (MEDP) five stocks are near buy points. It is a diverse list, showing possible areas of market leadership in the new year.

DE stock and Medpace are on the IBD Leaderboard. Celsius stocks, MEDP stocks are on the IBD 50. Deere and BMRN stocks are on the IBD Big Cap 20.

Deere was Friday’s IBD Stock Of The Day.

But whether these stocks work or not depends on the upward trend of the market. It is not like that now. Investors should be very careful.

The video included in the article discussed the recent market action in depth and discussed what investors should do as the market heads into 2023. The video also analyzed the stocks of CELH, Deere and BioMarin.

China EV Deliveries

No (NIO), At Auto (LI) and XPeng (XPEV) is set to announce EV deliveries for December, the fourth quarter and the full year on Sunday, January 1. Li Auto said on Friday that December deliveries of its hybrid SUVs will reach 20,000, breaking November’s record of 15,034. Nio recently lowered its Q4 delivery guidance, citing issues related to Covid. Guidance pointed to December deliveries of 14,263-15,263 EVs, which would slightly surpass November’s record of 14,178. Xpeng should see shipments pick up after a few months of declines, but its model lineup is struggling.

BYD is likely to report its December sales on January 3, before the US market opens on Tuesday. The EV and battery giant recently revealed that Covid infections among workers are reducing production by at least 2,000 vehicles per day. BYD said recently, full-year deliveries of all-electric BEVs and plug-in hybrids should be around 1.88 million. This means that December deliveries will be around 247,000-250,000, which would still be a record.

Nio Corporation, Li Auto, Xpeng and BYD all had a tough 2022, as did other EV makers and growth stocks in general. They all went down in October or early November, but have pulled back in recent weeks.

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Tesla Vs. BYD: Which Giant EV is Better to Buy?


Tesla EV Delivery

Tesla is expected to release fourth-quarter EV production and delivery numbers on January 2. Analysts expect Q4 Tesla deliveries to reach 418,000, though consensus has weakened in recent days amid weakness in China. Tesla offered big end-of-year incentives, especially in China and the United States, to boost sales. This didn’t provide a huge boost in China, but it appeared to clear inventory in the US

In 2023, Tesla will benefit from new US tax credits of up to $7,500, though the year-end incentives of $7,500 for the Model 3 or Model Y — along with Model S and X vehicles — expire on Dec. 30. have been added – may use some of that demand. . A $55,000 price tag on most Model Y vehicles could limit Tesla’s EV credit expansion.

Meanwhile, China is ending EV subsidies. With a major outbreak of Covid, that could further cool sales for EV makers out there, including Tesla. Tesla may need significant new price cuts in China, where competition from BYD, Nio, Li Auto, Xpeng and others is heating up.

In Europe, many countries are cutting or ending EV subsidies as recessions there ease, providing another blow to Tesla.

Tesla stock is down 65 percent in 2022, its worst annual decline ever. Shares tumbled 37 percent in December to their lowest level since September 2022. The EV giant has bounced back from midweek bear market lows and is almost flat for the week. almost always. TSLA’s stock volume has increased significantly over the past few weeks.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures open at 6:00 PM ET on Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.

US stock and bond markets will be closed on Monday, January 2nd for the New Year’s holiday.

On Tuesday, investors will receive the ISM manufacturing index for December. On Friday, the December jobs report looms large as the Federal Reserve looks for signs of a weakening labor market.

Remember that overnight activity in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular market session.


Join IBD experts as they analyze active stocks in the market rally on IBD Live


Scholarship Ends 2022

The stock market went into correction on Wednesday, but a new rally attempt began on Thursday. Major indexes fell on Friday, closing a slightly negative week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index was down 0.1%. The Nasdaq stock fell 0.3%. The Russell 2000 lost a little.

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For the full year, the Dow Jones retreated 8.8 percent, the S&P 500 fell 19.4 percent and the Nasdaq fell 33.1 percent. It was their worst annual performance since 2008.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 13 basis points to 3.88% last week after rising 27 basis points the previous week. The 10-year yield ended 2021 at 1.51%.

US crude oil prices rose 0.9% last week to $80.26 a barrel, their third weekly gain. Crude oil prices rose 6.7% this year, but ended well below their peak of over $130 a barrel.

ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Software Technology Sector ETF ( IGV ) fell 0.3%. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( SMH ) climbed 1%.

The ARK Innovation ETF ( ARKK ) rose 0.9% last week, but fell to a new five-year low on Wednesday. ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) was down 0.7%. TSLA stock has significant exposure across Ark Invest’s ETFs. Cathie Wood also has a small position in BYD stock.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) fell 1.9% last week. Global Infrastructure Development ETF X (PAVE) lost 1.2%. The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) fell 0.9%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF ( XHB ) fell 0.8%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF ( XLE ) rose 0.5% and the Financial Select SPDR ETF ( XLF ) advanced 0.7%. The SPDR Health Care Select Sector Fund ( XLV ) fell 0.2%.


The Five Best Chinese Stocks to Watch Now


Stock Market 2023: 5 Stocks To Watch

BioMarin stock fell 0.8% to 103.49 last week, pulling back in the second half of December but holding support around its 21-day line. A strong rise from current levels may present an aggressive entry. But investors may want to wait for BMRN stock to make a new base, or find support at the 10-week line. BioMarin’s revenue is expected to triple by 2023.

Deere stock fell 1.9% last week to 428.76, retreating to its 10-week moving average, with a flat base now on a weekly chart. The official buy point is 448.50. Investors may use a 10-week line as an early entry for DE stocks, perhaps after retracing the 21-day line.

The CELH stock has retreated from record highs in December, falling for the past four weeks, but on Friday it retreated from its 50-day line, closing at 104.04. If it clears the 21-day line decisively, a move above the December 27 high of 109.31 could offer an early entry as a specific trigger.

XOM stock climbed 1.5 percent last week to 110.30, slightly above its 50-day moving average. A move above December 27’s 110.47 would suggest an early entry. According to MarketSmith analysis, Exxon stock has a favorable base with a buy point of 114.76.

MEDP stock rose modestly above its 50-day moving average on Thursday, breaking out of a downtrend in a recent consolidation. This offered an early entry into the mix. On Friday, as the major indexes retreated again, Medpace stock fell back to its 50-day low, but closed well.

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Medpace’s move could still work, but it just shows how difficult it has been for stocks to move forward.

Stock Market Analysis

The stock market was down last week, capping a rough year even with Thursday’s strong rally.

The major indexes are off the lows of the October bear market but below their short-term highs of December. Technically a rally attempt is underway as the stock market begins 2023, but a follow-up day is needed to confirm a new trend.

Even then, the market will face a number of technical hurdles, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 all some distance below their 50-day and 200-day lines. The Dow Jones, the relative leader in recent months, fell below its 50-day line until the end of 2022 but is above its 200-day.

Until there is clarity on the Fed’s rate game and the economy, the market may be locked in volatile and sideways movements.

The December jobs report on Friday, January 6, will be important. A significant slowdown in employment and wage gains will bolster expectations for a further slowdown in the Fed’s rate hikes, raising hopes that a rate hike is imminent. But stronger or faster job and wage growth could lead to a bigger selloff.


Time the Market With IBD’s ETF Market Strategy


What to do now

On Friday’s year-end IBD Live, O’Neil Global Advisors portfolio manager Charles Harris said he “stays clear” of the market in 2022. There will be great opportunities ahead, including in new companies and trends, but not yet.

A number of companies are well established, including Deere, BioMarin and Medpace. The problem is that in the past few months, many stocks have been formed, but those formations have generally failed.

But investors must stay engaged and ready to act. If there is a confirmed rally in early 2023, many stocks have the potential to quickly move sharply or sharply higher.

So work on your watch lists but enjoy the long weekend. Come to the new year refreshed, waiting for the next market.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with market direction and leading companies and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter @IBD_ECarson for stock updates and more.

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