Post-ABC poll: House vote nearly split, GOP has edge on economy and turnout


Republicans have many advantages on the economy and inflation that are important in this fall’s election, and they are poised to take a majority in the House in Tuesday’s election, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Voters’ intentions in the House are roughly split, with 49 percent of registered voters saying they will vote for a Republican in their state and 48 percent saying they will vote for a Democrat. Maybe the voters split 50 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic.

If recent history is any guide, Democrats need clear leadership on this level to stop Republican gains. Most of the Democratic seats appear to be in the thick of things, according to political insiders, keeping the party in the dark until Tuesday. At this time four years ago, when they entered the House to criticize President Donald Trump, the Democrats had a seven-point advantage over the voters’ intentions. But when Republicans won big in 2010 and 2014, they had a much larger electoral advantage than the latest shows.

With Republicans needing to win five seats to take control of the House, Democrats face many challenges to keep that from happening. The findings do not predict how many seats will change hands, only the intentions of voters. Nor does the survey reflect the state of Senate races or the GOP’s chances of winning a majority in what is now a 50-50 Democratic chamber.

Another factor in the GOP’s favor: Republicans remain determined to vote, with 80 percent of Republican-leaning voters saying they are determined to vote or already have, slightly higher than 74 percent of Democratic-leaning voters. Voter turnout among Democrats is eight percentage points lower than in 2018, and steady among Republicans.

Read the full Post-ABC results

The gap is widening, with 48 percent of Republican voters following the polls “very closely” or “closely,” compared to 37 percent of Democratic voters. In 2018, there was little difference in the interest of Democratic and Republican voters who paid for the election.

Voter confidence in the election reflects the skepticism that followed the 2020 election, when a defeated Trump refused to endorse Joe Biden and made false claims about voter fraud before storming the US Capitol on January 6, 2021. By 2 to 1, Americans say they have high confidence. or less likely that votes in mid-term elections will be counted more accurately, compared to previous years. That includes more than 8 in 10 Democrats and more than 6 in 10 independents. Among Republicans, 55 percent express confidence compared to 45 percent who do not, including 19 percent who say they have no confidence.

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Several hundred GOP candidates in the House, Senate or state offices this year rejected or doubted the results of the 2020 election. Two years after that vote, a new poll found one in three adults who said they had no confidence in Biden’s candidacy. That includes more than 7 in 10 Republicans.

With days to go before the final ballots are cast and counted, the poll shows the reasons why Democrats are on the defensive, including that their candidates have been weighed down by Biden’s endorsement. Biden’s approval rating is at 41 percent, a slight change from 39 percent in September, when 53 percent disapproved. Among registered voters, his rating is 43 percent favorable, 53 percent unfavorable.

More than 8 in 10 Democratic voters give Biden a favorable rating. Meanwhile, 9 out of 10 Republican voters disapprove of the president’s performance. Among independents, 39 percent approve of how Biden is doing his job and 56 percent disapprove. Voters who approve of Biden support Democrats 90 percent to 8 percent, while those who disapprove support Republicans by 83 percent to 12 percent. Currently, the Democratic candidate is leading Biden by five points among registered voters.

There is a wide gap in Biden’s evaluation, with 44 percent of voters saying they disapprove of the president’s performance compared to 19 percent who say they strongly approve. Strong disapproval of Biden among independent voters is close to that found at 42 percent.

Abortion rights and threats to democracy animate many democrat voters and these issues are being used in the last messages to reduce the turnout as a way to take away all the good things about the GOP. Many Democratic candidates have highlighted the issue of abortion in their television ads and Mr. Biden addressed the threat to Democrats on Wednesday evening, hoping to galvanize the party’s base.

The series of lines that describe the current state of the electorate have been established in a new study. More than 9 out of ten (10) Republicans and Democrats said they would vote for their party’s representative in the House of Representatives. Meanwhile, independent voters split 53 percent to 45 percent for Republicans. In 2018, independent voters supported Democrats over Republicans in House races by 54 percent to 42 percent, according to online exit polls.

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Among voters, there is a wide gender gap, with 62 percent of men saying they would vote for a Republican candidate in their state and 59 percent of women saying they would support a Democratic candidate.

The same stark difference is evident by education, with 57 percent of voters without a college degree favoring Republicans and 58 percent of those with degrees supporting Democrats. By more than 2 to 1, white voters without college degrees favor Republicans while a majority of white voters with degrees (55 percent) support Democrats.

Voters’ intentions were little changed from the September poll. They are no better for Republicans than they were earlier this year, before the Supreme Court changed Roe v. Wade and promoting abortion rights as a key issue in the midterm campaign.

One example of how the electorate is divided in the United States is the small division on the question of whether the voters trust the party that can solve the problems that the country is facing in the coming years. Of this, 42 percent say they trust Republicans, 40 percent Democrats.

But in some cases, the advantages of each party are evident. Among registered voters, Republicans have a 14th chance on the economy, a 12th chance on inflation and inflation (although this gap has narrowed since September) and a 20th chance on crime. Democrats have a 13-point advantage on abortion and a 19-point advantage on climate change.

In terms of immigration and the threat to democracy, the first issue was strongly pushed by the Republicans and the second was presented by the Democrats, neither party has the opportunity to appear, although there are significant differences in all areas that are hidden by all the results. The two parties are also related to the interdependence of education and schools, as well as the great social differences.

Republicans have tried to make crime a big issue this year and their gains on the issue have grown significantly. In the summer of 2021, the two parties were voted equally as the most trusted party to fight crime. By last spring, the GOP margin had jumped to a double-digit advantage and has grown slightly since then.

When asked which of these eight issues would be one of the most important issues in the vote, the economy was named by 26 percent of voters, abortion by 22 percent, inflation and the threat to any democracy by 21 percent. The 26 percent of voters who ranked the economy as one of the most important factors in their vote favor Republicans by 44 points. The 22 percent who listed abortion as one of the most important issues behind the Democrats is 54 points.

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Twice as many Republican voters than Democratic voters cite the economy as one of the most important factors in their vote (32 percent vs. 15 percent). On abortion, the trend was reversed, with 32 percent of Democratic voters citing it as one of the most important issues compared to 12 percent of Republicans. Among independents, 28 percent say the economy is important in their decision, while 20 percent cite abortion.

The effects of inflation are revealed in another question, which asked people to compare their family’s financial situation with that of two years ago. More than 4 in 10 say it is worse, about 4 in 10 say it is the same and less than 2 in 10 say it is better.

Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which undermined federal protections for abortion, is opposed by more than 6 in 10 adults, including nearly 9 in 10 Democrats and more than 6 in 10 independents. More than half of Republicans support the resolution.

The number of adults who say abortion should be legal in all or most cases has increased since the decision, with 66 percent saying it should be legal in all or most cases, the highest number in a Post-ABC poll since 1995, when the question was about legal. . was asked for the first time.

But Democrats have also not united abortion rights supporters behind their party, with voters who support legal abortion favoring Democrats in Congress by 67 percent to 29 percent, while Republicans receive 88 percent support among voters who say abortion should be illegal. . Voting is also a factor, with opponents of legal abortion and nine points that can say whether they choose to vote or have already voted.

Post-ABC poll crosstab results by group

The Post-ABC survey was conducted by phone Oct. 30-Nov. 2 among a global sample of 1,005 adults of which 75 percent were reached by mobile phone. The total sample and the sample of 881 registered individuals have a margin of error of sampling of plus or minus four percent. The margin of error is 4.5 points among a sample of 708 potential voters.


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