North Carolina Is Now a Critical Swing State Thanks to Influx of Tech, Finance Jobs

(Bloomberg) — In North Carolina, where a neck-and-neck race in the Senate could help determine which party controls that chamber of Congress, inflation and abortion rights collide in the minds of voters and on the campaign trail.

The state has seen a boom in finance and high-tech in recent years as companies like Apple Inc. and Toyota Motor Corp. moved in here, changed the demographics, and transformed North Carolina from a dependable Republican state into a critical swing state.

North Carolinians are feeling the same inflationary pains as the US average, in contrast to unbalanced price hikes in other states with key Senate elections. That gives Democrats room to campaign against the erosion of abortion rights, an issue that is leading some Republican voters to cross party lines, making the state even more competitive in the race to replace US Senator Richard Burr.

U.S. Representative Ted Budd, who was swept into office alongside Donald Trump in a GOP wave in 2016, is in a dead heat with former chief justice of the state Cheri Beasley, a Democrat who is the third black woman would be a woman who would serve in the US Senate. according to a poll average on Thursday.

Gina Douglas is an example of the shift among voters with just weeks to go until the election. Douglas is a 55-year-old software vendor who recently switched her registration from Republican to Democrat. She struggles with rising inflation in her daily life. Despite the economic woes — which Budd has focused his campaign on — Douglas plans to vote for a Democrat because she believes in abortion rights.

“What I’m really concerned about in this election is that we’re putting Republicans in office that will take away their rights,” Douglas said at a campaign rally for Beasley earlier this month.

For Democrats, voters like Douglas present a tantalizing opportunity to flip a Senate seat that seemed out of reach just months ago, when rising prices – which many voters blame President Joe Biden – threatened to wipe out every other campaign issue in November’s midterm elections.

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In Mecklenburg County, home of banking center Charlotte, the Republican Party lead has shifted from 2.7 percentage points in the 2000 presidential election to a Democratic lead of 35 percentage points in 2020.

Inflation rates in Charlotte and Raleigh rose 8.7% and 8.3%, respectively, during the four-month period ended August compared to the same period a year ago, roughly in line with national inflation figures.

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North Carolina has seen a spate of corporate announcements over the past two years, including Apple’s plan to invest $1 billion in the Research Triangle area, which promises to create at least 3,000 new high-tech jobs. Toyota last month increased its investment in a battery factory in Randolph County to $3.8 billion and 2,100 jobs. Vietnamese automaker Vinfast bought land in Chatham County for a $4 billion facility that will eventually employ about 7,000 people. These investments are the fruit of decades of work by leaders from both parties to diversify beyond the tobacco-textile-furniture economy.

High-paying jobs in North Carolina grew 25% between 2001 and 2015, compared to 7.5% nationally, according to a study by Michael Walden, an economist at North Carolina State University.

At the same time, low-paying jobs in industries like hospitality and retail grew at more than double the US rate in the state, while middle-wage jobs in manufacturing and other sectors fell about 5%, hitting rural areas that depend on it Textile and clothing factories were particularly tough.

The high-tech transformation has sent commercial and commercial property rents into the stratosphere, slowed the growth of some small businesses and squeezed family budgets.

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exploding costs

Two years ago, the median home price in Charlotte was just 25% of a resident’s annual income, well below the 29% required statewide, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor. It now costs 44% compared to 43% nationally. Raleigh is still slightly cheaper than the US, but the gap has narrowed.

The real problem is with renters, whose monthly payments have risen 33% in Charlotte and 32% in Raleigh since the pandemic began, beating the 26% increase statewide.

Terese Hutchinson, owner of the Dooby Shop School of Cosmetology in Charlotte, said she’s keen to expand because her business is outgrowing the building, but the cost of rent is prohibitive, partly due to investors buying properties and driving prices up.

“Right now we’re tied to a lease because I’ve been here for so long. But if I took the same building and tried to rent it out now, I’d pay three times what I do now,” she said.

Eric Myers, president of parts maker Myers Tool and Machine Co. in Lexington, said the cost of steel plate, a key material in his business, has risen to more than a dollar a pound from 34 cents before the pandemic.

These problems might help Budd. He recently ran a campaign ad in a grocery store, featuring a distraught mother who can’t afford the tray of muffins her daughter wants. “Biden’s reckless spending has left us with record inflation that’s crushing working families,” the ad said.

While gas prices have come down somewhat, “there are families who are like, ‘How am I going to buy school clothes?'” Budd said at a recent campaign stop. “Or do I put gas in my car? Or do I put groceries on my table? So it’s not just gasoline. That’s part of it.”

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focus on abortion

However, Democrats see an opportunity in the Supreme Court’s abortion decision. Focusing on the issue recently helped the party’s candidates win a hard-fought special congressional election. It could give Beasley a similar boost.

Adrienne Fuller, a 36-year-old sales engineer at a Charlotte-area technology company, said protecting abortion rights was her top priority in November.

“When my mother tells me she’s shocked and sad that we’re going back now – and tells me that ‘as my daughter, the fact that you have the opportunity now, you have fewer rights than I did when you were your age’ – it is amazing,” Fuller said.

Beasley believes that abortion decisions should remain between a woman and her doctor, and endorsed the Women’s Health Protection Act, a federal law that aimed to codify abortion rights but failed in the Senate.

Budd has supported South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham’s proposed statewide ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with limited exceptions.

enthusiasm gap

Both Budd and Beasley need their constituents, and Budd is counting on constituents like Eddie Mayner, an independent Trump supporter who believes those who support abortion rights politicians are “against God.” Mayner was shopping in Hickory, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats two-to-one.

Budd courted Trump’s rank and file at a recent rally in Wilmington, North Carolina, where he appeared with the former president and declared he was “ready to stop the Biden-Beasley agenda and make America great again.”

But few people were able to name any of the candidates in dozens of interviews centered around Charlotte and Hickory in early September — a sign that perhaps neither has managed to captivate the state’s electorate.

This is where voter outrage about abortion or the economy can prove crucial to victory: it could inspire enthusiasm to vote even if the personality of the candidates doesn’t.

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