A meat ban, a rise in gold prices and a vote for ‘un-Brexit’ in the UK could be on the cards for 2023, according to Saxo’s outrageous predictions.
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Saxo Bank’s “outrageous predictions” for 2023 include a ban on meat production, skyrocketing gold prices and Britain voting for “un-Brexit”.
The Danish Bank’s annual report, published earlier this month, expects global economies to shift into a “war economy” mode, “where sovereign economic benefits and self-reliance will dominate globalization.”
The forecast, while not representative of the Bank’s official views, looked at how policymakers’ decisions over the next year could affect both the global economy and the political agenda.
Gold crosses $3,000
Amid the bank’s “outrageous” call for next year, Saxo head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen predicted spot gold prices could exceed $3,000 an ounce in 2023 – up from its current price of around $1,797 an ounce. 67% is higher.
The report puts its predicted boom down to three factors: “a growing war economy mindset” that makes gold more attractive than foreign reserves, a larger investment in new national security priorities, and increased global liquidity, as policy Manufacturers try to avoid credit crunch in their respective regions. Recession.
“I would not be surprised if commodity-driven economies want to move to gold for lack of better alternatives,” Saxo chief investment officer Steen Jacobsen told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Dec. 6.
“I think gold is going to take off,” he said.
While analysts expect gold to rise in price in 2023, an increase of that magnitude is unlikely, according to global commodity intelligence company CRU.
“Our price expectations are more moderate,” Kirill Kirilenko, a senior analyst at CRU, told CNBC.
“A less aggressive Fed is likely to lead to a weaker USD, which in turn could give gold bulls more breathing space and energy to rally next year, taking prices closer to $1,900 an ounce,” he added. can reach.”
However, Kirilenko highlighted that it all depended on the actions of the Federal Reserve. He said, “Any sign of increasing ‘hurry’ from the US central bank may put pressure on gold prices.”
Britain will vote for un-Brexit
The “outrageous prediction” most likely to happen next year, according to Saxo’s Jacobsen, is to have another referendum on Brexit.
“I actually think it’s one of those things that will have a high probability,” he told CNBC.
Saxo Markets strategist Jessica Amir said British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his finance minister Jeremy Hunt could take the Conservative Party’s ratings to “unheard-of lows” as their “brutal fiscal program throws Britain into a crushing recession”. ”
This, the bank estimates, could prompt the English and Welsh public to reconsider the Brexit vote, given the way young voters are leading, and could force Sunak to call a general election.
Saxo predicts another Brexit referendum could be on the cards for Britain.
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Saxo’s Amir said the opposition Labor Party could then win the election and promised a referendum to reverse Brexit on 1 November, winning the “re-join” vote.
Saxo’s Jacobsen told CNBC, “Traders are saying they only got a UK-specific GDPR from Brexit.” “The rest is just increased red tape,” he said.
Anand Menon, director of the think tank UK in a Changing Europe, said this prediction “simply doesn’t calculate.”
“I don’t think there will be another referendum and the idea would be [Labour leader Keir] Starmer will take the position that is for the birds,” he said.
Starmer told a business conference in September that his party would “make Brexit a success”.
Public sentiment towards Brexit has changed since the referendum, Menon said, after polling showed 52% of voters opted to leave the EU back in 2016.
“It is absolutely the case that public opinion is changing,” he said.
Research by YouGov in November showed that 59% of 6,174 people surveyed thought Brexit had gone “quite badly” or “very badly” since the end of 2020, while only 2% said Said it had gone “pretty well”.
ban meat production
According to research published by Nature Food, meat production is responsible for 57% of emissions, and as countries around the world have made net-zero commitments, Saxo says it is possible that at least one country will end meat production entirely. can be cut in any way.
Saxo Markets Strategist Charu Chanana said a country could decide to heavily tax meat from 2025 in “a quest to run others down” on its climate credentials and entirely on domestically produced live animal-sourced meat by 2030 can ban.
According to research published by Nature Food, meat is responsible for 57% of emissions from food production.
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“I wouldn’t be surprised to see schools banning meat in Denmark and Sweden, it’s certainly going that way,” Saxo’s Jacobsen told CNBC. “It sounds crazy to us old people,” he said.
The UK, countries in the European Union, Japan and Canada are among the countries that have legally mandated net-zero pledges.
The UK’s Department for the Environment Food and Rural Agriculture said it had “no plans” to impose a meat tax or ban meat production when contacted by CNBC.
An eventful 2023?
Some of the other “outrageous predictions” for the next year from Saxo include the resignation of French President Emmanuel Macron, Japan forecasting the yen to depreciate at 200 to the US dollar and the formation of a joint EU army.
However, the predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt. Saxo’s Jacobsen told CNBC that each forecast had a 5-10% chance of coming true.
The bank has made a set of “outrageous predictions” every year for the past decade and some have actually come true – or at least come close.
In 2015, Saxo predicted that the UK would vote to leave the European Union following a landslide of the United Kingdom Independence Party, it predicted that Germany would enter recession in 2019 – which the country narrowly avoided – and it bet That bitcoin will experience a meteoric rally. 2017.