Is Bitcoin price lower than 5 years ago, or has it doubled?

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Bitcoin (BTC) prices during the coldest winter in crypto history have been very discouraging for investors. The prices were selectively lower than almost five years ago. However, this does not mean that the bitcoin price will deteriorate as we zoom out.

If we look at Bitcoin’s significant price declines and recovery rates throughout its history, it becomes clear that Bitcoin has recorded new highs at the end of each bear cycle.

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Bitcoin’s current price is around $19,300, which is around 72% of its all-time high (ATH) of November 10, 2021 at $69,045. However, it can be said that this change is relatively normal for Bitcoin as it declined by around 75%, falling as low as $17,600 in June 2022.

Bitcoin: ATH price decline
Bitcoin: ATH price loss (Source: Glassnode)

As can also be seen in the chart above, the same drop of 75% or more was also recorded in 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2020. These changes indicate a significant level of volatility. However, bitcoin price prevailed each time and rallied to make new highs.

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Bitcoin price broke its infamous $20,000 support in late August 2022. $20,000 was the ATH point of the 2017 bull run. Breaking through a peak of a previous bull run is something Bitcoin has never done before that could excite investors.

Is $20,000 the right benchmark?

$20,000 was actually recorded as the ATH of the 2017 bull run. However, a closer look reveals that the Bitcoin price was only $20,000 for a few hours. The average price of the 2017 bull run was between $8,000 and $10,000.

For the years 2018 to 2020, on the other hand, the average price is just over 8,000 US dollars. The highest price level was $20,000 on December 17, 2017. This only lasted a few days, and the price went down to $10,000 by early January 2018.

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As a result, the average price between 2018 and 2020 appears to be close to $8,800, which would be the correct benchmark.

Fake $20,000

The 360-day moving average chart for Bitcoin shows that the BTC price does not deviate far from the 360-DMA from 2018 to 2020.

Bitcoin Day Moving Average (Source: Glassnode)
Bitcoin Day Moving Average (Source: Glassnode)

The December 2017 high of $20,000 appears in the chart above as a clear break from the 360 ​​DMA. This divergence suggests that bitcoin price was artificially pumped to $20,000.

Looking at the 2017 year-end average price and 360 DMA, it is clear that Bitcoin has returned to its average price range of around $10,000 and below after the effects of the pump have worn off.

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Under $10,000 to $20,000

All in all, the claim that Bitcoin’s current move is doomed just because it broke the ATH of the previous bull run by falling below $20,000 is not entirely true.

The $20,000 price level reached after an artificial pump can be booked as ATH at this point. However, data shows that the median price in 2018 was between $8,000 and $10,000.

Considering that bitcoin price is hovering around $20,000 today, it suggests a 2x increase compared to 2018.

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