What will Bangladesh’s economy look like in 2053? This is what Bloomberg Intelligence provides.
Bangladesh could see its potential growth rate peak in the mid-2030s if its economy receives dividends from infrastructure spending, economic diversification and higher productivity, Bloomberg Intelligence predicts.
“We expect Bangladesh’s potential growth rate to increase from the current 6.3% to 6.5% by the mid-2030s,” said a long-term outlook for Bangladesh released on Wednesday.
Skilled human capital, broader access to the internet in rural areas, foreign investment, emerging sectors and more women finding jobs are among the drivers of Bangladesh’s future growth, it said.
Demographic stress, constraints on infrastructure spending, job cuts from automation in sectors like apparel and climate change remain as downside risks to the long-term outlook, but warns, saying climate change vulnerability is the “biggest threat” to the future growth of the country country.
The research arm of New York-based media and finance firm Bloomberg believes several ongoing mega-projects in the transportation and energy sectors should boost productivity once completed, while trade and economic cooperation pacts being discussed with countries should ease investment flows.
The government’s focus on diversifying the economy by boosting sectors like food processing, lighting and information technology should encourage more investment and create jobs, Bloomberg Intelligence hopes.
“This will likely help offset the negative impact of increased automation on the key apparel sector,” it adds, hoping new training programs will help build human capital, bring more women into the labor market and fill skills gaps in emerging sectors.
More skilled workers will then bring more remittances home, which along with other gains in human capital will help offset slow growth in the working-age population through 2053, the forecast says.
The government is filling infrastructure gaps to boost exports and pushing investment in special economic zones and mega-projects that are likely to attract more foreign investment, it said, citing an economic partnership agreement being negotiated with India and similar initiatives with Japan. Singapore and other countries.