GOP opens edge on economy, crime ahead of midterms: POLL

Americans trust Republicans would do a better job on a number of key issues, with consistent double-digit advantages on inflation, the economy, gas prices and crime, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.

Inflation sees one of the bigger gaps — 36% of Americans trust the GOP and 21% trust the Democrats. Similar gaps exist in gas prices, with 36% of Americans trusting Republicans and 22% trusting Democrats, the poll shows.

Given the state of the economy, 36% of Americans trust Republicans to do a better job, while 24% trust Democrats — a potentially grim sign for the left, which is currently clinging to razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate.

On crime, a key closing issue for the GOP campaign, Republicans also enjoy a solid advantage — 35% of respondents trust them versus 22% who trust Democrats.

The public is much more evenly divided on immigration, with 35% of Americans trusting Republicans to do a better job compared to 32% who prefer Democrats, the new poll shows. Americans are also relatively divided on taxes, with 30% saying Republicans would do a better job versus 28% for Democrats.

Those clues for Republicans have solidified somewhat in numbers since August, according to the ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel, after both parties flooded the market with a barrage of ads, with the right painting Biden and portrayed his party as soft on crime, weak on immigration and directly responsible for higher prices at the pump and in the grocery store.

Just last week, President Joe Biden acknowledged the price crisis in the White House when he announced the release of 15 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Oil Reserve in hopes of reducing gas costs.

“Families hurt. You’ve heard me say this before, but I get it. I come from a family, when the price of gas at the gas station went up, we felt it. Gasoline prices have hit almost every family in this country, and they’re squeezing their family budgets. If the price of gas goes up, other spending will be cut,” Biden said.

Democrats aren’t entirely underwater, though — they’re seeing clues about voter confidence on COVID-19, climate change, gun violence and abortion. Access to abortion services has been a concern since the Roe v. Wade at the center of Democrats’ message as the White House and other party leaders hope to build a blue wall to combat an expected “red wave” of Republican victories.

However, recent polls, including from the Pew Research Center, suggest that their party supporters’ key issues are less likely to be prioritized as voting begins in midterm races across the country. An overwhelming majority — 79% — told Pew that the economy was “very important,” and 61% said violent crime was also “very important.”

One bright spot for Democrats on another question in the ABC News/Ipsos poll is that 58% of independent voters say they are less likely to vote if a candidate says they believe the 2020 presidential election will go to the former president Donald Trump were stolen for this candidate. Of 522 Republican candidates for federal and state offices across the country, 199 question the legitimacy of the last election, according to research compiled by FiveThirtyEight and ABC News.

Regardless of where they land on the issues, voters seem hungry for new leadership at the top.

As a major influence Trump has over his own party, 44% of Republicans say Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis should have “major” influence over the future of the GOP, according to the ABC News/Ipsos poll. That’s more than Trump, with 34% of Republicans saying they want the former president to have “a lot” of influence, the poll shows. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley are among other party leaders some Republicans want as the voice of their party.

The Democrats are also shying away from their leader, and by even more astounding margins. A large majority (42%) of Democrats want President Barack Obama to have “a lot” of influence over their party’s future direction and overtake the incumbent president, with only 27% of Democrats wanting Biden to have “a lot.” Influence, as ABC News/Ipsos poll shows.

The feeling of wanting anyone other than Biden isn’t necessarily new, but supporting Obama is consistent with a week of the most extensive midterm campaigning the former president has undertaken this cycle, with plans to end up heading to Michigan, Georgia and Wisconsin to travel October.

Last week, on the Pod Save America podcast, Obama argued that Democrats have a winning message to convey to voters: “What we’ve seen across the board is that if Democrats have even a really narrow majority in Congress, they… can improve people’s lives. When you combine deep concerns about our democracy with the tangible accomplishments this administration has been able to deliver – because we had narrow majorities in both the House and Senate – that should be enough to inspire people to exit.”

However, in the same interview, Obama also criticized his Democrats for being a “buzzkill” on many issues.

And although this election was partially framed as a referendum on Biden or Trump, a majority of voters, 48%, say their votes aren’t really about either.

This ABC News/Ipsos survey was conducted using the Ipsos Public Affairs KnowledgePanel® on October 21-22, 2022 in English and Spanish among a random national sample of 686 adults. The results have a sampling error of 4.0 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 28-24-41 percent, Democrat-Republican-Independent. View the topline results of the survey and details of the methodology here.

ABC News’ Dan Merkle and Ken Goldstein contributed to this report.