Dow Jones futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market index held a support level last week. Could the S&P 500 move above its 200-day moving average in the coming days and weeks? The night (AAPL) could be a major.
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Apple’s stock held at key levels and rose modestly even as the general market retreated. Like the S&P 500, the iPhone tech titan is moving back toward its 200-day line. A decisive move above that level could present a buying opportunity. But another rejection could offer another chance for AAPL’s short.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones constituents Boeing (BA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and GS stocks have been quiet on significant levels in the past few weeks, contributing to the Dow’s progress in the current market range. BA stock is technically right around a traditional buy point. Goldman Sachs (GS) is forming a deep base while JPM stock still has work to do.
Dow Jones Futures Today
Dow Jones futures open at 6:00 PM ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.
Remember that overnight activity in Dow futures and elsewhere does not necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular market session.
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Stock Market Rally Analysis
Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose less than 0.1% in market trade last week. The S&P 500 index fell 0.7% and the Nasdaq composite fell 1.5%. Russell 2000 small-cap yielded 1.75%.
On Tuesday, November 15, the S&P 500 briefly crossed 4,000, near its 200-day moving average. That level is especially important because the benchmark index retreated just 1 point from its 200-day line on Aug. 16, putting another leg in the bear market.
A decisive move above the 200-day line, which would also roughly coincide with a downtrend from the January 4 high, would be a strong signal that the bullish trend is beyond the bear market rally.
The S&P 500 clearing the 200-day line would also be a positive rebound for the leading stocks, which are nearing buy points in a choppy market.
Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 dipped back below its 200-day line last week, but may retake that level ahead of the S&P 500. The Dow Jones, supported by Boeing, Goldman and JPM, is comfortably above its 200-day high. But clearing last week’s highs would send the Dow back to 34,000 and just below its August peak.
The Nasdaq, weighed down by aggressive growth, is 8.3% below its 200-day line. Building above last week’s high would be a good first step. Also positive: The 21-day moving average just broke above the 50-day line on Friday.
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Thanksgiving week isn’t necessarily a prime time for a big market move. The market will be closed on Friday with a half-day session on Thanksgiving Day. Volume will be light during the week. Next week ends with a bang. On December 1, investors will get October’s PCE inflation data, along with the November ISM manufacturing index. On December 2, the report of the activities of November. That news could have a big impact on Fed rate hike expectations, bond yields and stock prices.
So it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the major indexes trade in a range over the next week. There is nothing wrong with a little consolidation for major indexes and major stocks.
Stock Apple
Apple’s stock rose 1.1% last week to 151.29, after rising 8.2% last week. Shares held their 50-day moving average, with the 21-day line set to break above the 50-day. AAPL stock is only marginally below its 200-day line. The Dow giant flirted with its 200-day mark on October 28 following earnings. But it turned out to be a prime opportunity for shorting, with shares falling to their worst close since mid-June in several days.
A decisive move above the 200-day line, possibly clearing the October 28 high of 157.50, would offer an early entry into a lower base starting on August 17. possibility of shortening.
Apple’s success or failure at the 200-day line could be significant for its performance in the S&P 500, and vice versa.
Boeing Stock
BA shares fell 2% to 173.89, after falling 47% in five weeks. When the Dow Jones skyrocketing giant reversed on earnings on Oct. 26, stocks bounced back, especially on a cash advance guidance a few days later.
Technically, Boeing stock is just below the bullish-based buy point of 173.95. But shares are 9.5% above their 200-day line and 19.5% above their 50-day. Stopping around current levels can create a safe buying opportunity.
Boeing is expected to turn a profit in 2023, ending a four-year losing streak.
Goldman Stock
Last week, GS stock fell 1.55 percent to 379.20. On a daily chart, shares are extended from a buy point of 358.72 a barrel in a huge consolidation. On a weekly chart, Goldman stock has a buy point of 389.68 on a year-to-date basis, according to MarketSmith analysis. But after a 28% gain over a successful four-week period, that’s a pretty small hand. A longer, deeper arm will help, and let the 50-day line close the gap.
The relative strength line is at a four-year high, showing Goldman stock’s performance against the S&P 500. The RS line is the blue line in the charts provided.
JPM Stock
Last week, JPMorgan fell 1.1 percent to 133.84. That’s a 29.5% improvement after six weeks. Shares are on their 50-day and 200-day lines, but they have work to do. JPM Corporation can build a long and deep merger on the right side, or it can build a bottom base.
Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with market direction and leading companies and sectors.
Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter @IBD_ECarson for stock updates and more.
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