Dow Jones Futures Await Jobs Report As Market Rally Holds Gains; Tesla Semi Deliveries Kick Off

Dow Jones futures fell slightly overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Investors will turn to the November jobs report on Friday morning.




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A Tesla Semi Truck Delivery Event Is Happening Thursday Night Tesla (TSLA) archival BYD prepares to release fast-growing EV sales numbers.

The stock market rally showed solid action Thursday, with indexes mixed but consolidating Wednesday’s huge gains on Fed chief Jerome Powell’s comments. Thursday’s PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, showed a lower-than-expected monthly increase with overall and core inflation once again slightly lower.

upside down beauty (ULTA) headlined Thursday night’s earnings report. ULTA stock was little changed overnight after reporting strong earnings and raised guidance. Shares of the beauty products retailer are already at record highs, boosted by buy points. Viva Systems (VEEV) trailed fiscal Q3 views, but Q4 guidance was slightly below the consensus midpoint. VEEV stock fell modestly in extended trading. Shares closed above the 200-day line, right around the initial entry.

Meanwhile, Dow Giant Kamla (CAT) is looking strong, CAT stock is just below the buy point. cyber security leader Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Marriott International (MAR) is also giving buy signals.

Boeing stock is on Swingtrader. Caterpillar was Thursday’s IBD Stock of the Day.

dow jones futures today

Dow Jones futures fell 0.2% versus fair value. S&P 500 futures sank 0.35%. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.5%.

Dow futures, Treasury yields and more will swing on the November jobs report, which is due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere does not translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

jobs report

Economists expect the November jobs report to show non-farm payrolls gains of 200,000, down from 261,000 in October. Note the household survey, which showed a 328,000 job loss in October. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3.7% based on the household survey, with the labor force participation rate increasing to 62.3%.

Other labor data this week pointed to a generally gradual slowing. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined, but continued claims jumped again. ADP reported a sharp slowdown in private-sector hiring last month, while the October JOLTS survey showed a slight decline in job openings.

Tesla Semi Delivery Event

A Tesla Semi model truck delivery event began shortly after 5 p.m. PT.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk Will Hand Over Some Tesla Semi EVs PepsiCo (pep) Thursday night. Speaking of late, the Tesla Semi was first unveiled six years ago and is scheduled to enter production in 2020.

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Musk says the Tesla Semi, which will use the same plaid drive units as the high-end Model S, has a range of 500 miles on a single charge. Investors will be looking for exact specifications on price, range and cargo. This will be important as the Tesla Semi takes on the big-rig EV already on the market from Volvo, Nikola (NKLA), BYD (BYDDF) and many more.

Another big question is what will happen to Tesla Semi production in the coming months. Kasturi did not provide clarity on that front.

Meanwhile, Tesla is now offering $3,750 off for the Model 3 and Model Y in the US this month. The idea is to encourage people to take delivery now. On January 1, a new US tax credit of $7,500 went into effect, subject to certain value and income limits, prompting many prospective buyers to wait. The tax credit should apply to most Model 3 sedans and Model Y crossovers, although the government has yet to provide clarity.

Tesla stock closed flat on Thursday at 194.70. On Wednesday, TSLA stock gained 7.7%, trailing its 21-day losing line, amid a big market rally and a rally in China EV shares.


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BYD Sales

China EV giant BYD is expected to release November deliveries on Friday or Saturday, clocking yet another record. BYD China’s No. 1 Auto Brand for Months, Expected to Be Overtaken Volkswagen (Wagwai). The VW Group is likely to remain No. 1, including Audi.

BYD stock fell 2.2% to 25.07 but is still above its 50-day line. BYDDF jumped 9.9% on Wednesday along with other China EV stocks.


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stock market rally

The stock market rally was marred by a 30-minute drop Thursday morning, but gradually improved in the mixed, a solid performance after Wednesday’s big gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% in Thursday’s stock market trading salesforce.com (CRM) A big negative. The S&P 500 index dropped 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 retreated 0.2%.

US crude oil prices rose 0.8% to $81.22 per barrel.

The 10-year Treasury yield fell 17 basis points to 3.53%, its lowest since late September. In the wake of Fed chief Powell’s comments and the PCE inflation report, markets are close to locking in a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike on December 14, ending a four-meeting string of 75-basis-point moves. Furthermore, there is now a 50-50 chance of a Fed rate hike of only a quarter point in February.

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The dollar, moving in line with yields, fell to its lowest level in nearly three months.

Stocks near Buy Points

CAT stock fell 0.3% to $235.69. According to MarketSmith analysis, shares are stalling around a valid 238 buy point from a cup base going back to April. Investors can look at 239.95 as another buy point, either as a higher handle for a seven-month cup base or as a conventional handle for a larger consolidation starting June 2021.

Stock of cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks climbed 5% to 178.40, jumping above the 200-day line, retaking that key level for the first time since mid-September. This comes after it rebounded from its 50-day line intraday on Wednesday, spurring major earnings selling in the peer. crowdstrike (CRWD). Investors can view PANW stock with a 193.01 buy point as a large, double-bottom base. But shares are already underperforming from clearing the 200-day line and the sloping trend line from the April peak.

MAR stock fell 0.1% to 165.19, well above the 164.99 handle buy point that opened on Aug. 16. On Wednesday, Marriott stock rebounded from its 200-day line, rising 2.5% on heavy volume.

ETF

Among the best ETFs, the iShares Extended Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) climbed 1.1%, even as major holding CRM stock sold off. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 0.3%.

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) fell 0.8% and the Global X US Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) rose 0.1%. The US Global Jets ETF (JETS) dropped 0.4%. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) climbed 1.25%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) declined 0.3% and the Financials Select SPDR ETF (XLF) declined 0.6%. Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) rose 0.3%

Reflecting more speculative story stocks, the ARK Innovations ETF (ARKK) climbed 1.1% and the ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) climbed 0.6%. Tesla stock is a major weighting in Arc Invest’s ETF. Cathy Woods Arch also has a short position in BYD stock.


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Market Rally Analysis

The stock market rally showed constructive action on Thursday, essentially building on Wednesday’s big gains.

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The S&P 500 index rebounded intraday from a pullback to its 200-day moving average, after recapturing that key level on Wednesday. The Russell 2000 also held its 200 day line. The Nasdaq still has work to do to get back its 200-day.

The Dow Jones gave up only a portion of Wednesday’s gains, largely due to Salesforce. Several Dow Jones stocks are showing strength, including Caterpillar, Boeing and UNH stocks. It reflects a wide range of strengths in industry, financial, healthcare and more.

October’s PCE inflation report was slightly better than expected. After Wednesday’s powerful market rally on Fed chief Jerome Powell — who apparently didn’t seem particularly dovish — holding onto those gains on Thursday was constructive.

Friday’s jobs report is another hurdle. If employment data points to some labor market sluggishness, it could provide another tailwind for stocks. But a hot labor market could trigger a bigger selloff.

Treasury yields and the dollar have declined heavily over the past two days and over the past few weeks, providing a huge headwind for stocks. A rebound in yields and the greenback would come as no surprise.

Keep in mind that there have been many large gains in a day in a market rally, followed by sideways or sliding action. This has made it difficult for investors to make gains even as the index has been trending higher over the past several weeks.


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What should we do now

Wednesday’s big moves were due to buy or pounce. Investors could add a little exposure on Thursday, but the jobs report remains a big question mark.

Friday’s market rally on the November jobs report could trigger several buying opportunities. But don’t be fooled by promising stocks before big news. Instead, work on your to-do list so you’re ready to act. But also be prepared to reduce risk if the market or your holdings turn sharply south.

Read The Big Picture every day to keep up with market direction and the leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter @IBD_ECarson For stock market updates and much more.

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