According to the American Growth Project’s inaugural report, Dallas-Fort Worth is expected to end this year with the country’s fifth fastest growing economy among major US cities.
The project, led by the University of North Carolina’s Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise, said only San Francisco, Austin, Seattle and Raleigh-Durham will end the year with stronger economic growth.
“The increment of 97,290 people in the area between June 2020 and July 2021 was not entirely surprising as the area has experienced robust and positive population growth every year since 1950,” the researchers wrote of D-FW. “The region’s continued appeal to new migrants is likely due — at least in part — to its diversity and strength across all industries.”
The researchers ranked the metropolitan areas according to the increases or decreases in gross domestic product that year. GDP is a monetary measure of the value of goods and services produced in cities over the course of a year.
The aim of the project is to provide a deeper understanding of the metro economies that make up the national picture. Additional rankings and forecasts in the coming months will explore areas such as skill levels, work flexibility and industry growth potential.
“To appreciate the forces driving our country’s economy — or to predict with any degree of certainty where it’s headed next — requires a much more solid understanding of what’s happening at the local level than current data can provide,” said Greg Brown, Executive Director of the Kenan Institute in a statement.
Read the institute’s full report here.
Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently wrote about mounting signs that Texas’ rapid recovery from the pandemic is slowing.
The Dallas Fed’s regular business outlook surveys also point to below-average growth in manufacturing and services earnings, wrote Vice President Pia Orrenius and research analyst Ana Pranger.
“After job count grew at a blistering 5.6% annual rate for the first seven months of 2022, expansion stalled in August,” they wrote. “Mom-on-month job growth fell to 0% in August from 7.6% in July.”
Employment growth is often taken as an indicator of economic dynamism.
The Dallas Fed is still forecasting Texas jobs growth of over 4% this year. Year-to-date job growth is 4.9%, with Dallas-Fort Worth leading the state’s hiring wave. Average job growth in Texas has historically been around 2%.
The next reading on Texas job growth comes on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports state employment data for September.