* Chinese entrepreneurs and bankers have become more optimistic about the macro economy, and city dwellers are more optimistic about future earnings and jobs in the third quarter as the economy recovers solidly, central bank surveys have shown.
* Both the business and banker macroeconomic heat indices, which reflect the two groups’ views on the current macroeconomic situation, rose quarter on quarter.
* The income sentiment index for the third quarter was 47 percent, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, while the income confidence index was 46.5 percent, up 0.8 percentage points.
BEIJING, Oct. 10 (Xinhua) — Chinese entrepreneurs and bankers have become more optimistic about the macro economy, and city dwellers are more optimistic about future earnings and jobs in the third quarter as the economy makes a solid recovery, central bank surveys have revealed.
Both entrepreneurs’ and bankers’ macroeconomic heat indexes, which reflect the two groups’ assessment of the current macroeconomic situation, rose quarter by quarter, according to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC).
In the period from July to September, the macroeconomic heat index for entrepreneurs was 26.9 percent, while the macroeconomic heat index for bankers reversed a downward trend and reached 19.9 percent, up 2.1 percentage points from the second quarter.
Of the more than 5,000 industrial companies surveyed nationwide, 52.2 percent viewed the macroeconomic climate as “normal,” up from 51.5 percent in April-June, the central bank said.
A heavy truck is tested at the assembly line of heavy truck capacity expansion project at Shaanxi Automobile Holding Group in Xi’an, northwest China’s Shaanxi Province, Sept. 27, 2022. (Source : Xinhua/Liu Xiao)
DEMAND ON THE UPSWING
Both export and domestic orders improved quarter by quarter. The export orders index came in at 42.2 percent in the third quarter, up 1.2 percentage points from a quarter earlier, while the domestic orders index rose 3.8 percentage points to 44.8 percent.
The rebound was in line with the improvement in the new orders sub-index of the September Manufacturing PMI, which rose 0.6 points from August to 49.8 as demand continued to improve.
Workers work at a smart manufacturing base of Great Wall Motors in Yongchuan District of southwest China’s Chongqing, Sept. 22, 2022. (Xinhua/Wang Quanchao)
Amid warmer sentiment, companies are asking for more credit. The PBOC said the aggregate loan demand index rose 2.4 percentage points from the previous quarter to 59 percent in the third quarter.
At a sectoral level, the manufacturing credit demand index improved a percentage point to 60.6 percent, while the index for infrastructure, wholesale and retail rose to 61.3 percent and 56.3 percent, respectively.
INCOME IMPROVEMENT
After surveying about 20,000 depositors in 50 cities across the country, the central bank found that more city dwellers saw higher incomes last quarter.
The income sentiment index for the third quarter came in at 47 percent, up 2.5 percentage points from the previous quarter, according to the PBOC, while the income confidence index was up 0.8 percentage point at 46.5 percent.
People visit Sanfangqixiang (Three Lanes and Seven Lanes), an old block, in Fuzhou, southeast China’s Fujian Province, Oct. 6, 2022. (Xinhua/Zhou Yi)
Of all depositors who took part in the survey, 12.2 percent said their income increased, up 1.4 percentage points from a quarter ago, and 69.7 percent of them felt no significant change in income.
Even if those in favor of more savings still make up the lion’s share, the savers surveyed indicated a greater willingness to invest. Up to 19.1 percent of them said they were making more investments, up 1.2 percentage points from the second quarter.
Notably, about 14.8 percent of respondents expect house prices to trend up, and 17.1 percent said they plan to spend more on home purchases in the fourth quarter, up from just over 16.9 percent in the second quarter.
OPTIMAL OUTLOOK
For the next quarter, entrepreneurs, bankers and city households all expressed confidence in the economy. The PBOC said the bankers’ macroeconomic warming expectation index is projected at 29.7 percent, up 9.8 percentage points from the third quarter.
On the jobs front, the jobs expectations index rose 0.8 percentage points to 45.3 percent this quarter, despite a slight decline in the jobs sentiment index.
Aerial panoramic photo taken on Sept. 26, 2022 shows the east residential area of Yangpu Economic Development Zone, south China’s Hainan Province. (Xinhua/Pu Xiaoxu)
The price expectation index for the next quarter rose slightly quarter-on-quarter by 0.6 percentage points to 61 percent. Specifically, 28.1 percent of the depositors surveyed expected rising prices, while 52.1 percent expected hardly any changes.
However, according to the entrepreneurs, the product selling price sentiment index and the commodity purchase price sentiment index fell significantly on both quarterly and yearly basis.
China’s overall price level has remained within reasonable limits this year, said Niu Yubin, an official with the National Development and Reform Commission.
Despite rising imported inflationary pressures, China’s CPI rose just 1.9 percent year-on-year in the first eight months of this year, much less than the 8.3 percent for the United States and 7.6 percent for the euro zone, according to Niu.
(Video reporter: Peng Ying; Video editors: Peng Ying and Zhu Jianhui.) ■
