Biden administration overstated Q2 job growth by 1 million: Philadelphia Fed

According to a report released by the Philadelphia Fed, the Biden administration touted the number of jobs created in the US during the second quarter by more than one million.

The Philadelphia Fed report found that just 10,500 net new jobs were created between March and June.

This finding is in stark contrast to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which estimated that 1.12 million new jobs were added between March and June of 2022.

Economists at the regional central bank in Philadelphia published their report last week that aggregates data from unemployment insurance payments.

The Philadelphia Fed said its estimate “incorporates more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program to augment the BLS’s sample data.” has been done” reports that are “issued monthly.” timely basis.”

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According to the Philadelphia Fed, the number of jobs created in the second quarter may have been inflated by the Biden administration.
According to the Philadelphia Fed, the number of jobs created in the second quarter of 2022 may have been inflated by the Biden administration.
Getty Images

The regional central bank said its “revised estimates” are released five months later “with a more complete picture” than that presented by the BLS’s “Current Employment Survey” (CES).

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said more than 1 million jobs were created during the second quarter of this year, but the Philadelphia Fed said the number was actually 10,500.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics said more than 1 million jobs were created during the second quarter of this year, but the Philadelphia Fed said the number was actually 10,500.
Getty Images

An expert told the Post that the huge difference in numbers could be explained by “the use of different methods to collect and analyze the data”.

“The Bureau of Labor Statistics gathers its data through surveys of employers and households, while the Philadelphia Fed relies on unemployment insurance payment data,” Mina Tadrus, CEO of Tadrus Capital, told The Post.

“It is also possible that there are differences in the definitions and categories used by the two organizations when determining what counts as a new job.”

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Tadrus told The Post that “the significant difference in their findings highlights the need for caution when interpreting and using economic data to inform decision making.”

Economists have said the Federal Reserve’s sharp hike in interest rates was based primarily on the BLS job growth number, which has complicated the central bank’s efforts to get red-hot inflation under control.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) said the Biden administration is “lying to the American people about our economy to further their failed agenda.”

“Wrong by a million jobs,” Scott tweeted last Friday.

The senators are demanding a meeting with the head of BLS.

The Philadelphia Fed said it compiled the data from unemployment insurance payment data.
The Philadelphia Fed said it compiled the data from unemployment insurance payment data.
AP

According to the BLS website, the CES surveys approximately 131,000 businesses and government agencies throughout the United States, representing approximately 670,000 workplaces.

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But the QCEW is considered “more comprehensive” because it bases its findings on surveys of “more than 95% of all employers” conducted five months after the relevant quarter, according to the Philadelphia Fed.

The Philadelphia Fed describes its methodology, saying, “Our initial benchmark process does not attempt to be as comprehensive as the BLS process because we do not have access to all the data used by the BLS.”

“Therefore, we accept the BLS’s benchmark CES estimates as the base employment level for each state.”

“After the release of QCEW data for periods beyond the latest benchmark CES estimates, we produce our initial benchmark estimates,” the Philadelphia Fed said.

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