Betting markets now see Republicans winning Senate in midterm elections, as GOP slightly favored for first time in 2 months

By Katie Marriner, Victor Reklaitis

While Democrats have focused their mid-term campaigns on abortion rights, Republicans have taken on raging US inflation

The Republican Party’s chances of taking control of the US Senate after November’s midterm elections continue to improve, with the PredictIt betting market now favoring the GOP over the Democrats.

Republicans hit a 52% chance of winning the Senate on Wednesday and stayed at that mark Thursday, according to PredictIt data. That’s the highest level since August 1, the last time the GOP was favored. (Note that PredictIt says the sum of all odds can be higher than 100% or $1, especially if they’ve changed rapidly as they reflect recent trades.)

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The Democrats had an advantage for more than two months, as shown in the chart below. Analysts had attributed the benefit in large part to the fact that after the Supreme Court’s June 24 decision that saw Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion rights case, was overturned, given more power.

Related: Democrats raise more money than Republicans in 9 out of 10 Senate contests, channeling voter ‘energy’ after Roe is ousted

While Democrats have focused their mid-term campaigns on abortion rights, Republicans have taken on raging US inflation. On Thursday, the latest reading for the CPI showed persistently high inflation, with the so-called core CPI climbing to a new cycle high. Shares fell early Thursday after the reading, but then closed significantly higher.

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Certainly other forecasts still suggest that Democrats will retain their hold on the 50-50 Senate, which they currently only control because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast tied votes. FiveThirtyEight currently gives a two-in-three chance for this Chamber of Congress to stay blue.

The Cowen Washington Research Group continues to see the most likely scenario in a Democrat-controlled Senate and a Republican-led House of Representatives, Chris Krueger, an analyst and chief executive officer at Cowen, said in a statement this week. But the Senate is “getting down to a handful of coin-flip races in swing states,” he added.

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Related: These 3 races could determine whether Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate in 2023

And see: Senate control can only be determined in December. Here’s why.

Plus:Sen. Lindsey Graham’s corporate donors have been linked to his controversial abortion law. Why “everybody gotcha play with political issues”.

The additional charts below show key Senate races to watch and each party’s performance in a general congressional vote.

-Katie Marriner


(ENDS) Dow Jones Newswires

10/15/22 1532ET

Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


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